If the yen rallies into the the 13th/14th of Feb (plus/minus 1 trading day), I think it may be ending its long-term uptrend from the 1982 low of 35.96 basis nearby futures. Sometimes the Japanese government intervenes in the currency markets on Sunday nights when volume is light to get the most bang for their operations. Must be alert on the evening of the 12th since it's right at the edge of the CIT window. Once/if the lower trendline of the rising wedge breaks (and likely gets back-tested) on the daily/weekly chart, it may kick off a 5-year decline into the week of 2/17/2017. Polarity is guess for 2017, but that is my next major turn point for the yen. Can't rule out a multi-week topping process for Feb/Mar 2012, but there shouldn't be any significant upside after 2/14.
If, on the other hand, the yen sells off significantly from here and trends down into this Feb 2012 time window, it could mark another low with the uptrend to continue thereafter. I would give this scenario a very low probability, but anything is possible.
My market timing work projects vibrations in time where a change in trend is probable. Polarity is always a guess until we arrive at the projected timing. I'll post a follow-up as we arrive.
There is no certitude in forecasting a turning point in a market, just as there is no certitude that a signal from a trend following system or other indicators will be profitable. Like everything else, it is a probabilities game which requires risk management and trades that accrue net gains over time.
Kim Rice 1/29/12
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment