Dollar Analysis

The most oversold market I'm aware of is potentially making an intermediate trend change. After initial wave up is complete, there will likely be fairly sizable wave 2 pullback. I have fairly important timing for a trend change in dollar market around 1/19/2010 (+/- 2 trading days). I'm assuming at this point it may be timing for a higher wave 2 low, but I'll wait till we get there to see which way the market is trending.

Analysis and comments are on the chart.

Kim

97% Bulls on Gold

I see the latest sentiment survey for gold is up to 97% bulls. Are there any reasons for caution based on geometric analysis of the gold price action? The charts are annotated with my comments. I think there is a reasonably good chance for significant reversal at the 1151 area.

Possible fractal for NYA. Not necessarily a forecast, but a breakdown from here seems like a reasonable probability.

Kimston

Opposing Cycles in Gold

Gold has an interesting confluence of opposing cycles due around 8/25/09. I think we may be making an important top. Ideally I would like to see a spike up over a $1000 to set up a low risk short, but we may not get it.

Nasdaq Ewaves and Projections

Ewave count for Nasdaq appears to be wv 2 ending with wave 3 down to start before the end of the year. Wave 2 could turn into a flat or larger zig-zag that could take months of sideways trading range before wave 3 starts to the downside.

The second chart shows projections to 620, 420 and 240 based on fibonacci confluence points on log chart.

Nearer term on the third chart, there is currently (as of 8/16/09) price and time square on NDX that looks interesting for potential end to wave 2.

Market topping process may take several more weeks, but the bulk of price appreciation for wave 2 may well be complete.