AAPL Top?

Posted below is an update to the chart posted here a few weeks back.AAPL popped briefly over the upper channel line but appears to be reversing from that presumed resistance area.

The next chart shows a confluence of two different fib projections to the 640 to 660 area, but I wouldn't be surprised if went up again and topped at 666 (which is the price the S&P bottomed in 2009). The high so far is 644 on 4/10/12. Potential targets are noted on the first chart above. Kim Rice 4/15/12

OEX and Nasdaq; Potential Major Inflection Points

Posted below is a chart of the OEX that shows a confluence of multiple projections to the 647 area +/- a couple points. There are two separate range expansions of 1.272 that project to this same price. Also, the 647.5 area is where the price advance from the July 2010 low is .618 times the length of the March 2009 to April 2010 price advance. All measurements are based on semi-log scale.

The next chart show a massive parallel channel in the OEX using semi-log scale. Price is just bumping into the upper channel at the 647 area.

The last chart shows the Nasdaq is running into potential resistance from two different channels that intersect at current highs. This chart is also in log scale.

Based on the above charts and apparent massive resistance at current prices, along with the 488 td CIT timing in this time zone, one should assume the equity markets may be making an important top in this area. A move above 655 basis OEX would likely invalidate the top thesis for now. Kim Rice 3/27/12

SP 488 Trading Day CIT and Monthly Fib Timing

Analysis is annotated on charts. It appears the quantitative counterfeiting program is over-powering all cycles. I don't know if these will have any effect either.

Kim Rice 3/26/12

APPL at Potential Resistance

The latest parabolic move in APPL has reached resistance at the upper channel line shown on the chart posted below. If APPL is topping here, that would be consistent with projections for NQ futures posted here.

Kim Rice 3/23/12

Mini NQ Nearby Futures; 2900 & 789 day CIT

Posted below is a chart of NQ nearby futures, continuous contract showing several AB-CD measured moves; one to 2739 area, and the other to 2900 area. There are quite a few other projections to 2900 area, but my assumption is there will be significant sell-off in the next one to six months from near current levels. A break much above 2765 will increase the likelihood of a run to the 2900 target. The 789 trading day CIT has marked turns for some time (next due around 4/20/12), but it could stop working at any time.

Kim Rice 3/21/12

Nasdaq Ewave Count and 3/20/12

Posted below is the Emini Nasdaq nearby futures contract with my best guess on the Ewave count. It appears we are very near to the completion of a major double zigzag up from the March 2009 lows. Ideal equal length of current ABC to first ABC projects to 2739, about 30 points above the close of 3/16/12.

I posted last week that I had some timing projections lining up on or around 3/15. There are a number of cycles and Ganniversary dates that line up there. However, after additional analysis this weekend using some of my more obscure timing methods, it appears the ideal window for a probable reversal in stocks is 3/19 or 3/20, with 3/20 having the most hits. Top-picking based on projected turning points has been rather futile during QE, so I don't know what odds to assign this. All things being equal (which they rarely are these days), the timing looks quite important to me in this 19th/20th window.

Kim Rice 3/18/12

Stocks and March 15 (+/- 1 trading day)

I don't have time to post the charts and analysis at the moment, but my timing work has an important confluence on 3/15/12 (+/- a trading day or two) for a probable top in stocks. There are numerous divergences between various indexes; notably the NYA, RUT and Transports are failing to make new highs by a significant margin while the DJIA, SPX and NDX roar to new highs above the May 2011 top. Also the Institutional Index has reached a an exact AB=CD (measuring the July 2010 low to the May 2011 top and adding that range to the October 2011 low projects to the high reached on 3/14/12). Accumulating Sep 2012 SDS 18 calls.

Kim Rice

SPX key target of 1375 to 1376 is in range

If 1375 gets hit it provides a low-risk shorting opportunity. Buy SDS June puts when 1375 is hit. Close puts if SPX closes over 1382 or risk 15% of option price, whichever happens first. If the market breaks down after getting fill, sell 25% of position on each down day with break even stop on remainder. 2/27 to 3/1 may mark low before potential retest of highs later in March.

There is very key timing 3/9 to 3/12 and also 3/20 area, presumably part of a topping process in March. Will be looking to re-short then if the market accommodates.

Kim Rice 2/20/12

QQQ and NDX Channel Resistance

The QQQ seems to have a bit of a tracking error with the NDX index. QQQ tagged the upper channel line today, but it appears the NDX hasn't made it quite yet. I guess we'll find out over the next few weeks or months if any of the channel or trend line resistance points are important. With the recent extremes in sentiment, I suspect the channels may mark at least a decent pullback if not a major top.

Kim Rice 2/15/12

Yen E-wave: Irregular running flat correction

It's too early to say for sure, but it appears the yen bottom may have come in during the overnight session (morning of the 15th). In the chart posted below I added a potential wave count following the top/bottom of 10/31/11. I'm labeling it as Wave 1 up (it looks like it subdivides into 5 waves), followed by an abc irregular running flat. An irregular running flat is a correction where the "b" wave makes a new high above the top of wave 1, and the "c" wave fails to make a new low below the bottom of the "a" wave. Using this count, wave 2 retraced exactly .786 of wave 1.

If the overnight low does not hold, the next projected support is at 76.90 and then all the way down to 74.90. Based on the timing analysis posted the last few days, we should not be making new lows after the 16th or 17th at the later (2 trading days after the cycle time window).

Kim Rice 2/15/12

SPX Follow-up With Price Projections

Posted is a follow-up to the analysis posted 2/2/12. The SPX has rallied into the next 1.272 expansion shown on the chart below. This may mark an important top in the 1352 area. However, it this doesn't hold there is quite a confluence at the 1376 area, including the .382 expansion shown on the first chart and the 1 to 1 measured move shown the second chart.

Kim Rice 2/14/12

APPL update

AAPL blew right through earlier projected resistance in the 470-475 range. Next projection for potential reversal is the 1.272 expansion (log scale) of a prior leg as shown on the chart below. The market is trading at that level this morning, which is 503.50. AAPL did have a significant correction at the 1 to 1 level shown on the chart, so 1.272 and 1.382 projections should be watched for reversal setup. There are plenty of higher projections if this one doesn't hold. One is in the 600 area and the 1.382 expansion shown on the chart below is 725.

Kim Rice

Yen update: Possible Major Low Feb 14/15, 2012

This is a follow-up to the yen info posted 1/29/12:

The yen has sold off into Feb 14th, so the assumption is that it will bottom today or tomorrow. The potential is for a rally into late June to the 145 to 165 range where it should reverse and begin a multi-year bear market.

Kim Rice 2/14/12

SPX Symmetry With 1.272 Expansions

The first two charts show the May 2011 top with 1.272 expansion in price from different swing points.


The next chart shows the SPX currently making a 1.272 expansion of the previous wave. If the 1.272 level is exceeded by more than a few point, the next target is in the 1351 area which is a 1.272 expansion of the 10/4/11 low to the 10/27/11 high.

Kim Rice 2/3/12

AAPL: Projections for a Potential Top

I don't know what kind of odds to lay on this working out, but I have a confluence of price projections pointing to the 470 to 475 area as a potential top in AAPL. Not sure about THE top, but I think a reasonable chance of an intermediate top. Strategy would be to step in front of the freight train at 470 to sell short or buy puts and stop out if AAPL closes above 482.

Kim Rice 1/30/12

Yen: Major Turn Point Due Feb 13/14, 2012

If the yen rallies into the the 13th/14th of Feb (plus/minus 1 trading day), I think it may be ending its long-term uptrend from the 1982 low of 35.96 basis nearby futures. Sometimes the Japanese government intervenes in the currency markets on Sunday nights when volume is light to get the most bang for their operations. Must be alert on the evening of the 12th since it's right at the edge of the CIT window. Once/if the lower trendline of the rising wedge breaks (and likely gets back-tested) on the daily/weekly chart, it may kick off a 5-year decline into the week of 2/17/2017. Polarity is guess for 2017, but that is my next major turn point for the yen. Can't rule out a multi-week topping process for Feb/Mar 2012, but there shouldn't be any significant upside after 2/14.

If, on the other hand, the yen sells off significantly from here and trends down into this Feb 2012 time window, it could mark another low with the uptrend to continue thereafter. I would give this scenario a very low probability, but anything is possible.

My market timing work projects vibrations in time where a change in trend is probable. Polarity is always a guess until we arrive at the projected timing. I'll post a follow-up as we arrive.

There is no certitude in forecasting a turning point in a market, just as there is no certitude that a signal from a trend following system or other indicators will be profitable. Like everything else, it is a probabilities game which requires risk management and trades that accrue net gains over time.

Kim Rice 1/29/12

1/27/12 May Be Key Turn Date in Markets

In my proprietary timing analysis, 1/27/12 (+/- 1 trading day) appears to be an important window to be alert for a change in trend in stock indices, gold, silver, and the dollar.

Polarity is always a guess until you get to the date. My guess is stocks and metals will make a high and the dollar will make a low around the 27th, but they could easily be the opposite or fail to work entirely.

One thing to keep in mind is that cycles and other timing methods tend not to work well during periods of heavy market manipulation by central banks. Actually, most technical and sentiment indicators fail to work well during QE phases (with the possible exception of pure trend following methods). In other words, my confidence in this or any market call is diminished when the markets are not allowed to trade freely.

Kim Rice
1/22/12

NDX Measured Moves: 2463 & 2875

Posted are two long-term charts of the NDX: the first one in normal arithmetic scale and the other in log scale.

In the normal scale chart, the current upleg will equal the range of the 2002 to 2007 upleg at 2462.82. I would look for short set-up above 2460 with stop at daily close above 2483.

If the NDX closes above 2500, the market may complete (in one or more years) a measured move in percentage terms which would target 2875 as shown on the log scale chart.

Kim Rice 1/22/12