SPX key target of 1375 to 1376 is in range

If 1375 gets hit it provides a low-risk shorting opportunity. Buy SDS June puts when 1375 is hit. Close puts if SPX closes over 1382 or risk 15% of option price, whichever happens first. If the market breaks down after getting fill, sell 25% of position on each down day with break even stop on remainder. 2/27 to 3/1 may mark low before potential retest of highs later in March.

There is very key timing 3/9 to 3/12 and also 3/20 area, presumably part of a topping process in March. Will be looking to re-short then if the market accommodates.

Kim Rice 2/20/12

QQQ and NDX Channel Resistance

The QQQ seems to have a bit of a tracking error with the NDX index. QQQ tagged the upper channel line today, but it appears the NDX hasn't made it quite yet. I guess we'll find out over the next few weeks or months if any of the channel or trend line resistance points are important. With the recent extremes in sentiment, I suspect the channels may mark at least a decent pullback if not a major top.

Kim Rice 2/15/12

Yen E-wave: Irregular running flat correction

It's too early to say for sure, but it appears the yen bottom may have come in during the overnight session (morning of the 15th). In the chart posted below I added a potential wave count following the top/bottom of 10/31/11. I'm labeling it as Wave 1 up (it looks like it subdivides into 5 waves), followed by an abc irregular running flat. An irregular running flat is a correction where the "b" wave makes a new high above the top of wave 1, and the "c" wave fails to make a new low below the bottom of the "a" wave. Using this count, wave 2 retraced exactly .786 of wave 1.

If the overnight low does not hold, the next projected support is at 76.90 and then all the way down to 74.90. Based on the timing analysis posted the last few days, we should not be making new lows after the 16th or 17th at the later (2 trading days after the cycle time window).

Kim Rice 2/15/12

SPX Follow-up With Price Projections

Posted is a follow-up to the analysis posted 2/2/12. The SPX has rallied into the next 1.272 expansion shown on the chart below. This may mark an important top in the 1352 area. However, it this doesn't hold there is quite a confluence at the 1376 area, including the .382 expansion shown on the first chart and the 1 to 1 measured move shown the second chart.

Kim Rice 2/14/12

APPL update

AAPL blew right through earlier projected resistance in the 470-475 range. Next projection for potential reversal is the 1.272 expansion (log scale) of a prior leg as shown on the chart below. The market is trading at that level this morning, which is 503.50. AAPL did have a significant correction at the 1 to 1 level shown on the chart, so 1.272 and 1.382 projections should be watched for reversal setup. There are plenty of higher projections if this one doesn't hold. One is in the 600 area and the 1.382 expansion shown on the chart below is 725.

Kim Rice

Yen update: Possible Major Low Feb 14/15, 2012

This is a follow-up to the yen info posted 1/29/12:

The yen has sold off into Feb 14th, so the assumption is that it will bottom today or tomorrow. The potential is for a rally into late June to the 145 to 165 range where it should reverse and begin a multi-year bear market.

Kim Rice 2/14/12

SPX Symmetry With 1.272 Expansions

The first two charts show the May 2011 top with 1.272 expansion in price from different swing points.


The next chart shows the SPX currently making a 1.272 expansion of the previous wave. If the 1.272 level is exceeded by more than a few point, the next target is in the 1351 area which is a 1.272 expansion of the 10/4/11 low to the 10/27/11 high.

Kim Rice 2/3/12