Recent CIT date projections haven't marked significant reversals lately. In the recent strong uptrend, the 12/17 and 1/7 potential CITs for stocks, at best marked lows after 2 to 3 day congestion points. Natural gas was trending sideways into the potential CIT date of 1/13, so no setup in that market either.
There are some larger, more important looking cycles, fib timing projections and Gann dates lining up in late January 2011:
- 1/19 to 1/21 marks an 811 trading day CIT which has pinpointed significant turns in previous iterations of the cycle - see chart.
- I'm adjusting the 1/25/11 date mentioned earlier to 1/26 to 1/31 timeframe. If this 261 trading cycle top shows up, it should start at least a several week sell-off, and perhaps more if we are completing 5 waves up from the July 2010 low. Looking at previous iterations of this cycle top, it could be a new high or secondary lower high after a pullback.
- 2/8 or 9/2011 looks like at least a minor CIT that could mark a short-term low (or high if trending up into that date.
As usual, it's all probabilities. Sometimes the cycles are spot on and sometimes they invert or don't show up at all.
Kim Rice 1/16/11
Per the analysis and comments on the chart, Jan 2011 may be important timing for a reversal in the S&P. If the market continues to make significantly higher highs after Feb 2011, I think it would invalidate this fib time series observation. If the markets do begin to roll over here, it may mark a top of significance that could last many months. We'll all find out in the fullness of time, as Ed Hart used to say.
