AAPL Top?

Posted below is an update to the chart posted here a few weeks back.AAPL popped briefly over the upper channel line but appears to be reversing from that presumed resistance area.

The next chart shows a confluence of two different fib projections to the 640 to 660 area, but I wouldn't be surprised if went up again and topped at 666 (which is the price the S&P bottomed in 2009). The high so far is 644 on 4/10/12. Potential targets are noted on the first chart above. Kim Rice 4/15/12

OEX and Nasdaq; Potential Major Inflection Points

Posted below is a chart of the OEX that shows a confluence of multiple projections to the 647 area +/- a couple points. There are two separate range expansions of 1.272 that project to this same price. Also, the 647.5 area is where the price advance from the July 2010 low is .618 times the length of the March 2009 to April 2010 price advance. All measurements are based on semi-log scale.

The next chart show a massive parallel channel in the OEX using semi-log scale. Price is just bumping into the upper channel at the 647 area.

The last chart shows the Nasdaq is running into potential resistance from two different channels that intersect at current highs. This chart is also in log scale.

Based on the above charts and apparent massive resistance at current prices, along with the 488 td CIT timing in this time zone, one should assume the equity markets may be making an important top in this area. A move above 655 basis OEX would likely invalidate the top thesis for now. Kim Rice 3/27/12

SP 488 Trading Day CIT and Monthly Fib Timing

Analysis is annotated on charts. It appears the quantitative counterfeiting program is over-powering all cycles. I don't know if these will have any effect either.

Kim Rice 3/26/12

APPL at Potential Resistance

The latest parabolic move in APPL has reached resistance at the upper channel line shown on the chart posted below. If APPL is topping here, that would be consistent with projections for NQ futures posted here.

Kim Rice 3/23/12

Mini NQ Nearby Futures; 2900 & 789 day CIT

Posted below is a chart of NQ nearby futures, continuous contract showing several AB-CD measured moves; one to 2739 area, and the other to 2900 area. There are quite a few other projections to 2900 area, but my assumption is there will be significant sell-off in the next one to six months from near current levels. A break much above 2765 will increase the likelihood of a run to the 2900 target. The 789 trading day CIT has marked turns for some time (next due around 4/20/12), but it could stop working at any time.

Kim Rice 3/21/12

Nasdaq Ewave Count and 3/20/12

Posted below is the Emini Nasdaq nearby futures contract with my best guess on the Ewave count. It appears we are very near to the completion of a major double zigzag up from the March 2009 lows. Ideal equal length of current ABC to first ABC projects to 2739, about 30 points above the close of 3/16/12.

I posted last week that I had some timing projections lining up on or around 3/15. There are a number of cycles and Ganniversary dates that line up there. However, after additional analysis this weekend using some of my more obscure timing methods, it appears the ideal window for a probable reversal in stocks is 3/19 or 3/20, with 3/20 having the most hits. Top-picking based on projected turning points has been rather futile during QE, so I don't know what odds to assign this. All things being equal (which they rarely are these days), the timing looks quite important to me in this 19th/20th window.

Kim Rice 3/18/12

Stocks and March 15 (+/- 1 trading day)

I don't have time to post the charts and analysis at the moment, but my timing work has an important confluence on 3/15/12 (+/- a trading day or two) for a probable top in stocks. There are numerous divergences between various indexes; notably the NYA, RUT and Transports are failing to make new highs by a significant margin while the DJIA, SPX and NDX roar to new highs above the May 2011 top. Also the Institutional Index has reached a an exact AB=CD (measuring the July 2010 low to the May 2011 top and adding that range to the October 2011 low projects to the high reached on 3/14/12). Accumulating Sep 2012 SDS 18 calls.

Kim Rice