S&P 630 Trading Day Vibration: Due 4/12 to 4/16 2010

Most cycles and timing analysis hasn't been effective in the face of the fed's QE program. Let's see if this one brings a turn.

Kim Rice 4/11/10

980 Trading Day Vibration in S&P: Due May 6 to 10

As usual, cycles and time squares can come and go, so I have no idea if this one will come in. However, if it is going to be a low of some sort, I would think the market will have to start selling off soon. It could also invert and mark high. I'll just see which way we're trending into the time window and see if there is a trade set-up.

Kimston 4/11/10

S&P - Possible Fractal Pattern

The potential fractal pointed out on the chart jumps out as me as too similar to dismiss. I think it's valid as long as the SPX doesn't trade above 1250. Actually, it would fit better if SPX stays below 1206 area, but I think we may have to give it some room. Time-wise, the market could chop around in a topping process for weeks if it wants to; or it could start heading down soon. If we charge above 1250 area, I'll probably have to shelve this particular fractal idea.

I think the pull of the 4 yr cycle low (due in 4th quarter 2010) will kick in fairly soon. However, if this is 87 redux, we may have a few sharp pullbacks but no final peak until early August when the big alignment in the sky takes place. In 1987 the market frenzy peaked on the day of the Harmonic Convergence (8/25/87) and then lost 38.2% in about 8 weeks. As always, we'll have to wait to find out.

Kim Rice 4/11/10

Time and Pattern Analysis of Gold

I don't have a strong opinion on gold; however, there is potential for a change of trend (top) on 4/12/10 +/- a trading day or two. Also, as shown on the chart, the current pattern looks very similar to the 2008 topping pattern. It seems sentiment is getting heated up in gold, so it may be setting up for a rug pull after the CIT window.

So far, the Canadian Dollar appears to be running into resistance per the analysis posted 4/5/10 http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/04/canadian-dollar-long-term-channel.html. If so, this may be supportive to the notion of a top in gold in the next few days.

Obviously, a break above the 1225 highs in gold would invalidate the fractal noted on the chart and would likely indicate a larger up move was underway. We'll see.

Kim Rice 4/7/10

E-Mini Terminal Wedge?

This is an update to the chart posted 4/4/10 http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/04/possible-change-in-trend-for-stocks.html. My best guess, until proven otherwise, is that the E-mini intra-day chart (and several other indexes) is tracing out a terminal wedge. Wedges have 5 waves, so it appears to need one more wave up. See comments annotated on the chart. A break below 1170 would invalidate this count. Whatever the correct count is, the current sentiment seems ripe for a significant top. Also, we are currently in the time window for a potential turn in the markets per the charts posted 4/4/10.

Kim Rice 4/7/10

Canadian Dollar - Long Term Channel

The Canadian Dollar is at potential resistance today (4/5/10) in the 100 area. Not shown on the chart are any indicators. However, the RSIs and other momentum indicators are currently in divergence pattern on the daily chart. Additional comments on chart.

Kim Rice

Possible Change in Trend for Stocks

Posted is a 60 min Emini chart showing what appears to be a terminal rising wedge pattern. It looks like it may need one more pullback to the bottom trendline of the wedge followed by a final thrust up to complete the pattern. The final wave up may or may not throw over the upper wedge trendline.

Time patterns in various stock indices = possible change in trend for week of 4/5/10. The ocean of money pumped into the markets via QE over the last year has kept indexes in relentless up trends. Lets see if the confluence of dynamic and linear time patterns shown in the charts will have any effect in reversing things....at least for awhile.

Kim Rice 4/4/10