DJIA Fractal: Possible Short-term Base

The intra-day pattern of the last few days on the 3 minute DJIA chart reminded me of a pattern that formed on the daily DJIA chart over a period of several months from Oct 2008 to the Mar 2009 low (after the 2008 crash). I don't know if this apparent fractal pattern will continue to follow the 2008-2009 pattern but, if it does, the markets should begin a rally soon. If the current potential basing pattern (that also follows a steep down leg, only on a very small scale compared to 2008) plays out, we should expect a 50% to 60% retracement of the leg down from the 6/21/10 high before rolling over again and likely breaking to new lows. There is also a 996 trading day vibration in the Nasdaq that hits today, 6/30/10. I covered shorts on the close just in case this confluence of time and possible basing fractal result in a sizable bounce. An exact match of the fractal projects to a low of 9754 on the DJIA, which was the low today. I think if we have an hourly close below 9700, the fractal pattern is most likely invalidated and I will reload at least a 25% short position.

Kim Rice 6/30/10

Nasdaq: 737 Trading Day Vibration

A 737 td vibration lined up today, 6/21/10, in the Nasdaq. I guess we'll see if it marks a turn. The stock indices shown in the previous post (Trendline Resistance on Stocks) gapped over the trendlines but failed to hold the gains and closed under the lines. The trading strategy: hold short with stops just above highs set on 6/21/10.

Kim Rice 6/21/10

Trendline Resistance on Stocks

Here are a few charts that show various indices have rallied right to what I view as important resistance. It looks like make or break time. A reasonably low-risk strategy is to reload shorts here at resistance with stops a few points above the lines on a closing basis.

A previous post mentions 6/24/10 as important timing. After reviewing data again, and since the other CIT dates posted for June have all shifted to plus 1-2 days, I think it's more likely that the 25th or 28th will be the CIT day.

Kim Rice 6/16/10

Dollar: Will the Trendline Hold?

For some reason the charts originally included with this post wouldn't open with usual double click. I uploaded them again, so let's see if they will open this time.

Well, the dollar is has entered the trendline resistance area I showed in my earlier analysis posted 12/6/09 as the dollar was bottoming: http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2009/12/dollar-analysis.html

If the dollar manages a weekly close or two above the trendline, I think it will likely indicate the dollar will ultimately go much higher, short-term down drafts not withstanding.

As shown on the updated chart, there is a 285 week vibration that is due the week of 6/7/10. We should find out soon if it shows up again. Not shown on the chart are some other shorter-term time squares lining up for this same week. Also not show is another significant timing confluence due around Aug 6-10, 2010.

The second chart is a close-up of recent activity that looks like a five wave pattern may be ending and we are completing a final 5th wave thrust out of the triangle that formed over the last few weeks. Also the 14 period RSI has significant divergence with price. Additional comments are included on the longer-term chart.

Kim Rice 6/6/10