Upcoming Potential CIT Dates for Stocks, Gold, Dollar, and Natural Gas

Stock indices and gold/silver have fairly significant timing confluence for potential change in trend on the following dates:

• 12/17/10 - probable top, at least short term
• 1/6/11 - should be a low
• 1/25/11 area - I'm guessing an important top (may be higher or lower top)

US Dollar has a 320 wk cycle low due around 1/25/11 (probably higher low than Nov 2010)

Natural gas should have trend change on or near 1/13/11, I'm thinking it will be a low of significance.

As usual, when analyzing potential CIT dates, polarity is very difficult to determine in advance. The main idea is to see if a market trends into a CIT date and presents a set-up for trading a reversal.

Kim Rice 12/16/10

Stocks: 354 Trading Day Symmetry

The month of November saw the stock market push higher and basically ignore price and time projections/confluence points. After a brief pullback in November we are again challenging or exceeding the recent highs. I still think it is part of a topping process that seems to be getting the bullish sentiment gauges pushed to extremes. There are outstanding projections in SPX to 1250 area, so that may have to be seen before the market has a meaningful reversal - don't know.

Posted today is a chart showing some symmetry with a 354 trading day time span that has marked a number or reversals from different swing points for several years now.

Dec 2010 is also a Fibonacci 21 months from the Mar 2009 low, whereas the Apr 2010 top was 13 months from the Mar 2009 low.

There are numerous divergences setting up on indicators and among different indexes as the SPX is pushing to new highs on this latest stampede to the upside. Sometimes these time symmetries will mark turns when sentiment is one-sided and the indicators are diverging. Let's see if the QE2 will override everything and keep the markets going or if the markets will stall and possibly turn down for more than 2 days. Other upcoming CIT dates to watch are 12/13/10, 12/31/10 and 1/10/11 (all plus or minus a trading day or two).

Kim Rice 12-5-10

QQQQ Trendline and 93 TD Vibration on NDX

My previous post includes a chart showing potential price resistance in the Nasdaq around the 2517 area http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/10/nasdaq-reaches-price-projection.html .

Posted today are a few charts showing more analysis that's leading me to think the stock market may be making a top. If the 93 trading day vibration continues to mark turns, we shouldn't be surprised to see a spike up and reversal down on Monday 11/1/10. Looking to add to shorts with stop remaining at 2540 for now.

Kim Rice 10/31/10

Nasdaq Reaches Price Projection Confluence

Three different projections from multiple swing points all converge for a potentially important confluence in the 2516 area (+/- a point or two). Since that is the area of the high today, I wouldn't expect prices to move significantly higher from here if this confluence is important. Shorts could be entered with stops at 2540, which is 5 points above the April 2010 high. Time cycles are also lining up around the 28th/29th for possible reversal. Note that 11/17/10 looks to be very important in currencies and stocks and, at this point, I have no idea on polarity.

Kim Rice 10/28/10

Cotton: 2249 Trading Day Vibration

I see cotton has more or less been trending with the stock market since the Nov 2008 lows. The chart shows a 2249 td vibration that may or may not mark a reversal in cotton. Though the CIT date is due at end of Oct 2010, due to the length of the cycle I would give it some room, probably to around mid November. If it hasn't marked a significant reversal by then, I would say this cycle is being overwhelmed by the sea of fiat money the world is creating to keep the system afloat. We'll see soon enough.

Kim Rice 10-24-10

Gold: Is the Recent 1388 Peak Important?

I posted some analysis recently on gold, showing several potential near and long-term targets based on linear and log scale charts: http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/10/gold-potential-projections.html

Now that gold has recently peaked in the 1388 area, I thought I would do some analysis on that price point. Here's what I found:

• Range of Feb 2010 L to Jun 2010 H = Range of Jul 2010 L to Oct 2010 H @ 1388.
• Range of Feb 2010 L to Oct 2010 H @ 1388 is .618 x the range of the Oct 2008 L to Dec 2009 H.
• Range of Jan 1970 L ($35.00) to Jan 1980 H expanded by 61.8% = 1389 as shown in the chart.

I still think 1450 area may be important per my earlier analysis; however, this 1389 area looks just as important for different reasons.

Kim Rice 10/24/10

Possible Targets for Apple

I took a look at the long and short-term chart of AAPL, since, due to its weighting, it almost single-handedly is running the NDX up. I found multiple projections pointing to 328.50 to 331 range. There was one projection in log scale that pointed to 315, essentially the high of 10/15/10. So if AAPL hasn't peaked yet and needs to climax after earnings come out AH 10/18/10, it should run into resistance near 330. If it moves above 335, the next projection I see is a possible run to 360.

Kim Rice 10/17/10

More on Currencies

Thought I would post a chart showing some trendlines and a potential time square completing on the Canadian Dollar. The Aussie Dollar, in addition to the long-term trendline coming in around 99 area, has what appears to be some import fib price projections to the 99 to 100 area.

Kim Rice 10/14/10

Natural Gas Analysis

Natural gas may be approaching a low between now and mid November. Comments and analysis are on the charts. The first chart is a zoom in on the last few years price action. The second chart is a long term view.

Kim Rice 10/10/10.

Australian Dollar Analyis

The Aussie continuous nearby futures chart is approaching a long-term trendline. Additional comments are on the chart.

Kim Rice 10/10/10

Gold: Potential Projections

Posted are a few long-term charts of gold with comments and potential price projections based on arithmetic scale and log scale continuous nearby futures contract. In the nearer term, if we close above 1360, I suspect gold will have important resistance at 1450 to 1500 area. The longer-term, higher projections are only in play if we eventually break out significantly above 1450 to 1500 area. Though not shown on the charts, I do have some important cycles (presumably lows) due in early March and late May 2011.

Kim Rice 10/10/10

Nasdaq: 725 Trading Day Vibration Due 9/17/10

Timing, sentiment, and patterns are suggestive of a top in this area for stocks. Next key timing date is 9/28/10 +/- a trading day or two. That date is based on a significant confluence of linear and dynamic timing methodologies. I suspect it may be a low but, as usual, polarity is difficult to forecast. Most of the sell-offs since the Apr 2010 top have been 8 trading day swings. If the market peaked 9/17, 8 tds from there is 9/28/10. We'll see when we get there. If it turns out to be a high, I'll add to shorts established 9/17 & 20.

Kim Rice 9/19/10

Bonds - 8/20/10 Timing Confluence

There is a confluence of linear and dynamic timing elements lining up on 8/20/10. Also, the nearby continuous futures tested the top of a 6 month channel at the highs today. I put on a small short position in early trading today, though I'm not convinced this is a major high yet.

Another series of cycles line up on 8/31/10 +/- a trading day or two. I'm guessing it may be a low, but I'll wait to see which way we trend into that timing window.

The most significant cycles and fib timing, suggestive of a major change of trend, line up at the end of the year, give or take a week.

Kim Rice 8/20/10

Follow-up to 1987 Analog

I posted charts on 6/10/10 regarding the similarity between current stock market and the1987 top,

http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/08/djia-possible-fractalanalog-of-1987-top.html

I see Bob Prechter noticed this pattern similarity as well and was on Bloomberg yesterday talking about it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62152902/

Normally, a market guru pointing out a pattern on a major network would diminish the likelihood of the pattern working out. However, I'm seeing pretty heavy call buying in the ISEE All Equities Only

data yesterday and today, which probably means investors are not aware of the pattern similarity or don't believe it. This seems ominous given the potential crash scenario unfolding. It is what it is until it isn't. It probably isn't if we advance above recent highs. If that occurred, some other pattern would be developing, though I think the bigger picture remains bearish unless the major indices can get a couple closes more than 3% above the April 2010 highs.

Kim Rice 8/12/10

DJIA: Possible Fractal/Analog of 1987 Top

Posted is a DJIA chart of the current market and a chart of the 1987 top that preceded the crash of that year.

It appears the current pattern in the DJIA is tracing out a very similar looking abc Flat correction as appeared in 1987. Both have a rising wedge in the C wave of the flat. The correction of the down wave in 87 was about 65%. So far, we are in that ball park in the current retracement of the down wave from the April 2010 top. If this observation is correct and the pattern continues to track, this market could melt down over the next few weeks or months. If this happens, it seems it would confound a lot of participants as it would follow on the heels of the big Fed announcement of more easing.

The biggest argument I see against this playing out is the traditional sentiment surveys don't seem as bulled up as would normally be expected for a crash scenario. So it's make or break time. I imagine the market could go sideways to slightly higher for a few more days (up to 10,800 to 10,900 or so) without invalidating the pattern, or it could just roll over from current levels. I think a rally much above 11,000 would likely invalidate the analog.

Kim Rice 8/10/10

Dollar: 1637 Trading Day Vibration

Posted is a daily chart of the dollar showing a series 1637 td turns, the last of which was due 8/6/10. It appears the dollar may be bottoming on schedule for at least a significant bounce and possible even another leg up. This last down-leg in the dollar has retraced exactly 61.8% of the previous up-leg. I would recommend covering if still short since the top posted here on 6/2/10: http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/dollar-will-trendline-hold.html

Kim Rice 8/9/10

385 Trading Day Vibration in Stocks

The fractal pattern posted 6/30/10 http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/06/djia-fractal-possible-short-term-base.html went a little deeper than expected on the downside, but marked the low timing-wise. The rally since that low has now retraced 61.8% of the down leg from the April top basis the NYA index.

The chart of the DJIA mini futures daily shows a 385 trading day vibration that has marked highs and lows for several iterations. We are currently in the window for another turn if this cycle is going to show up again. Additionally, the rising wedge pattern since the July 2010 low appears to be nearing its terminus, though I wouldn't rule out another spike up in current turn window before rolling over.

After the current 385 td vibration, I also have clusters of linear and fib cycles lining up on 8/20 and then a larger confluence on 8/26/10. All dates are +/- 2 trading days.

Lastly, I believe the dollar is bottoming now, which may add to downside pressure on stocks going forward. I think odds favor another leg down to challenge or break the July lows.

Kim Rice 8/9/10

Kim Rice

DJIA Fractal: Possible Short-term Base

The intra-day pattern of the last few days on the 3 minute DJIA chart reminded me of a pattern that formed on the daily DJIA chart over a period of several months from Oct 2008 to the Mar 2009 low (after the 2008 crash). I don't know if this apparent fractal pattern will continue to follow the 2008-2009 pattern but, if it does, the markets should begin a rally soon. If the current potential basing pattern (that also follows a steep down leg, only on a very small scale compared to 2008) plays out, we should expect a 50% to 60% retracement of the leg down from the 6/21/10 high before rolling over again and likely breaking to new lows. There is also a 996 trading day vibration in the Nasdaq that hits today, 6/30/10. I covered shorts on the close just in case this confluence of time and possible basing fractal result in a sizable bounce. An exact match of the fractal projects to a low of 9754 on the DJIA, which was the low today. I think if we have an hourly close below 9700, the fractal pattern is most likely invalidated and I will reload at least a 25% short position.

Kim Rice 6/30/10

Nasdaq: 737 Trading Day Vibration

A 737 td vibration lined up today, 6/21/10, in the Nasdaq. I guess we'll see if it marks a turn. The stock indices shown in the previous post (Trendline Resistance on Stocks) gapped over the trendlines but failed to hold the gains and closed under the lines. The trading strategy: hold short with stops just above highs set on 6/21/10.

Kim Rice 6/21/10

Trendline Resistance on Stocks

Here are a few charts that show various indices have rallied right to what I view as important resistance. It looks like make or break time. A reasonably low-risk strategy is to reload shorts here at resistance with stops a few points above the lines on a closing basis.

A previous post mentions 6/24/10 as important timing. After reviewing data again, and since the other CIT dates posted for June have all shifted to plus 1-2 days, I think it's more likely that the 25th or 28th will be the CIT day.

Kim Rice 6/16/10

Dollar: Will the Trendline Hold?

For some reason the charts originally included with this post wouldn't open with usual double click. I uploaded them again, so let's see if they will open this time.

Well, the dollar is has entered the trendline resistance area I showed in my earlier analysis posted 12/6/09 as the dollar was bottoming: http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2009/12/dollar-analysis.html

If the dollar manages a weekly close or two above the trendline, I think it will likely indicate the dollar will ultimately go much higher, short-term down drafts not withstanding.

As shown on the updated chart, there is a 285 week vibration that is due the week of 6/7/10. We should find out soon if it shows up again. Not shown on the chart are some other shorter-term time squares lining up for this same week. Also not show is another significant timing confluence due around Aug 6-10, 2010.

The second chart is a close-up of recent activity that looks like a five wave pattern may be ending and we are completing a final 5th wave thrust out of the triangle that formed over the last few weeks. Also the 14 period RSI has significant divergence with price. Additional comments are included on the longer-term chart.

Kim Rice 6/6/10

Stock Indices: Potential CIT Dates for June & Astro Volatility

The link below is to a 5/26/10 interview of Larry Pesavento where he says the next few weeks are similar to the Oct 2008 meltdown period as far as planetary alignments go. I don't know if he will be right but, if we're kicking off wave 3 down, a meltdown could happen any time. Crashes come when markets are in an oversold condition, however most of the time the market will rally from oversold conditions like we have now.

CIT dates for June in my work are (with scale of 1 to 10 for significance):

6/2 (1-10 scale=2)

6/7 (4)

6/14 (7)

6/24 (7)

As usual, there is no way to know for sure what will happen in the markets. I will just trade around my CIT dates and add, lighten, stand pat or reverse positions based on what the sentiment, technicals, E-waves and other patterns or fractals look like as the dates arrive.

For the Larry P interview, click on the following link to Frisby's Bulls and Bears: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

Or paste the following URL into your browser for a direct link to the audio file: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/mf/web/cp3h5k/LarryJune2nd.mp3

Kim Rice 5/29/10

S&P - Potential Time Confluence 5/25/10

Tuesday 5/25/10 is a confluence of the following trading days measuring from prior swing points in SPX:

8, 13, 21, 62, 89, 161, 233, 377, 617(618-1)

and

130 = 10x13

339 = (34x10)-1

552 = (55x10)+2

5/25/10 area +/- a trading day or two is a time to be alert for possible reversal in market, albeit probably a fairly short term reversal.

Kim Rice 5/19/10

Nasdaq: 638 Trading Day Vibration

Attached are two charts of the Nasdaq showing that we have entered the time window for a potential CIT of significance. The first chart shows iterations of the 638 trading day vibration going back to the 2000 top.

The second chart is a bit shorter view showing just the last two iterations of the cycle. There are additional comments on the long-term chart regarding an Fibonacci time series that ended on 5/12/10.

Kim Rice 5/13/10

Gold: Breaking Out or Topping Out?

The blue vertical bars show a 455 trading day vibration in gold. We are currently in the window to look for potential turn and trade set-up. Additional comments are on the chart.

Kim Rice 5/10/10

S&P 630 Trading Day Vibration: Due 4/12 to 4/16 2010

Most cycles and timing analysis hasn't been effective in the face of the fed's QE program. Let's see if this one brings a turn.

Kim Rice 4/11/10

980 Trading Day Vibration in S&P: Due May 6 to 10

As usual, cycles and time squares can come and go, so I have no idea if this one will come in. However, if it is going to be a low of some sort, I would think the market will have to start selling off soon. It could also invert and mark high. I'll just see which way we're trending into the time window and see if there is a trade set-up.

Kimston 4/11/10

S&P - Possible Fractal Pattern

The potential fractal pointed out on the chart jumps out as me as too similar to dismiss. I think it's valid as long as the SPX doesn't trade above 1250. Actually, it would fit better if SPX stays below 1206 area, but I think we may have to give it some room. Time-wise, the market could chop around in a topping process for weeks if it wants to; or it could start heading down soon. If we charge above 1250 area, I'll probably have to shelve this particular fractal idea.

I think the pull of the 4 yr cycle low (due in 4th quarter 2010) will kick in fairly soon. However, if this is 87 redux, we may have a few sharp pullbacks but no final peak until early August when the big alignment in the sky takes place. In 1987 the market frenzy peaked on the day of the Harmonic Convergence (8/25/87) and then lost 38.2% in about 8 weeks. As always, we'll have to wait to find out.

Kim Rice 4/11/10

Time and Pattern Analysis of Gold

I don't have a strong opinion on gold; however, there is potential for a change of trend (top) on 4/12/10 +/- a trading day or two. Also, as shown on the chart, the current pattern looks very similar to the 2008 topping pattern. It seems sentiment is getting heated up in gold, so it may be setting up for a rug pull after the CIT window.

So far, the Canadian Dollar appears to be running into resistance per the analysis posted 4/5/10 http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/04/canadian-dollar-long-term-channel.html. If so, this may be supportive to the notion of a top in gold in the next few days.

Obviously, a break above the 1225 highs in gold would invalidate the fractal noted on the chart and would likely indicate a larger up move was underway. We'll see.

Kim Rice 4/7/10

E-Mini Terminal Wedge?

This is an update to the chart posted 4/4/10 http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/04/possible-change-in-trend-for-stocks.html. My best guess, until proven otherwise, is that the E-mini intra-day chart (and several other indexes) is tracing out a terminal wedge. Wedges have 5 waves, so it appears to need one more wave up. See comments annotated on the chart. A break below 1170 would invalidate this count. Whatever the correct count is, the current sentiment seems ripe for a significant top. Also, we are currently in the time window for a potential turn in the markets per the charts posted 4/4/10.

Kim Rice 4/7/10

Canadian Dollar - Long Term Channel

The Canadian Dollar is at potential resistance today (4/5/10) in the 100 area. Not shown on the chart are any indicators. However, the RSIs and other momentum indicators are currently in divergence pattern on the daily chart. Additional comments on chart.

Kim Rice

Possible Change in Trend for Stocks

Posted is a 60 min Emini chart showing what appears to be a terminal rising wedge pattern. It looks like it may need one more pullback to the bottom trendline of the wedge followed by a final thrust up to complete the pattern. The final wave up may or may not throw over the upper wedge trendline.

Time patterns in various stock indices = possible change in trend for week of 4/5/10. The ocean of money pumped into the markets via QE over the last year has kept indexes in relentless up trends. Lets see if the confluence of dynamic and linear time patterns shown in the charts will have any effect in reversing things....at least for awhile.

Kim Rice 4/4/10