S&P Weekly with Andrew's Pitchfork

The SP is up against the upper boundary of the pitchfork. I guess we'll find out fairly soon if Ben Bernanke's fat finger can push the market through this resistance point like it has on all prior resistance points.

Kim Rice 2/9/11

NQ Resistance

Posted is a long-term chart and short-term closeup of potential resistance at the 2360 area achieved today at the highs of the session. Whether or not it tops here, 2360 does mark a place for a relatively low risk short entry. I think shorts in the 2355 to 2360 area with stop at 2370 is a reasonable risk/reward setup. Reasonable downside target is .382 ret. of rally since July 2010 low, which comes in around 2100.

Kim Rice 2/7/11

Stocks: Monthly Fib Timing

Per the analysis and comments on the chart, Jan 2011 may be important timing for a reversal in the S&P. If the market continues to make significantly higher highs after Feb 2011, I think it would invalidate this fib time series observation. If the markets do begin to roll over here, it may mark a top of significance that could last many months. We'll all find out in the fullness of time, as Ed Hart used to say.

Kim Rice 1/31/11

US Dollar Timing

The dollar has linear and dynamic time cycles lining up for a potential low sometime between 1/31/11 and 2/15/11. I'm leaning to the early side of that range, but all you can do is use other indicators and pattern analysis to look for a setup and confirmation of a reversal if it comes. Additional comments are annotated on the charts.

Kim Rice 1/27/11

Stock Indices: Potential CIT Dates

Recent CIT date projections haven't marked significant reversals lately. In the recent strong uptrend, the 12/17 and 1/7 potential CITs for stocks, at best marked lows after 2 to 3 day congestion points. Natural gas was trending sideways into the potential CIT date of 1/13, so no setup in that market either.

There are some larger, more important looking cycles, fib timing projections and Gann dates lining up in late January 2011:

• 1/19 to 1/21 marks an 811 trading day CIT which has pinpointed significant turns in previous iterations of the cycle - see chart.
• I'm adjusting the 1/25/11 date mentioned earlier to 1/26 to 1/31 timeframe. If this 261 trading cycle top shows up, it should start at least a several week sell-off, and perhaps more if we are completing 5 waves up from the July 2010 low. Looking at previous iterations of this cycle top, it could be a new high or secondary lower high after a pullback.
• 2/8 or 9/2011 looks like at least a minor CIT that could mark a short-term low (or high if trending up into that date.

As usual, it's all probabilities. Sometimes the cycles are spot on and sometimes they invert or don't show up at all.

Kim Rice 1/16/11

Upcoming Potential CIT Dates for Stocks, Gold, Dollar, and Natural Gas

Stock indices and gold/silver have fairly significant timing confluence for potential change in trend on the following dates:

• 12/17/10 - probable top, at least short term
• 1/6/11 - should be a low
• 1/25/11 area - I'm guessing an important top (may be higher or lower top)

US Dollar has a 320 wk cycle low due around 1/25/11 (probably higher low than Nov 2010)

Natural gas should have trend change on or near 1/13/11, I'm thinking it will be a low of significance.

As usual, when analyzing potential CIT dates, polarity is very difficult to determine in advance. The main idea is to see if a market trends into a CIT date and presents a set-up for trading a reversal.

Kim Rice 12/16/10

Stocks: 354 Trading Day Symmetry

The month of November saw the stock market push higher and basically ignore price and time projections/confluence points. After a brief pullback in November we are again challenging or exceeding the recent highs. I still think it is part of a topping process that seems to be getting the bullish sentiment gauges pushed to extremes. There are outstanding projections in SPX to 1250 area, so that may have to be seen before the market has a meaningful reversal - don't know.

Posted today is a chart showing some symmetry with a 354 trading day time span that has marked a number or reversals from different swing points for several years now.

Dec 2010 is also a Fibonacci 21 months from the Mar 2009 low, whereas the Apr 2010 top was 13 months from the Mar 2009 low.

There are numerous divergences setting up on indicators and among different indexes as the SPX is pushing to new highs on this latest stampede to the upside. Sometimes these time symmetries will mark turns when sentiment is one-sided and the indicators are diverging. Let's see if the QE2 will override everything and keep the markets going or if the markets will stall and possibly turn down for more than 2 days. Other upcoming CIT dates to watch are 12/13/10, 12/31/10 and 1/10/11 (all plus or minus a trading day or two).

Kim Rice 12-5-10