DJIA Fractal: Possible Short-term Base

The intra-day pattern of the last few days on the 3 minute DJIA chart reminded me of a pattern that formed on the daily DJIA chart over a period of several months from Oct 2008 to the Mar 2009 low (after the 2008 crash). I don't know if this apparent fractal pattern will continue to follow the 2008-2009 pattern but, if it does, the markets should begin a rally soon. If the current potential basing pattern (that also follows a steep down leg, only on a very small scale compared to 2008) plays out, we should expect a 50% to 60% retracement of the leg down from the 6/21/10 high before rolling over again and likely breaking to new lows. There is also a 996 trading day vibration in the Nasdaq that hits today, 6/30/10. I covered shorts on the close just in case this confluence of time and possible basing fractal result in a sizable bounce. An exact match of the fractal projects to a low of 9754 on the DJIA, which was the low today. I think if we have an hourly close below 9700, the fractal pattern is most likely invalidated and I will reload at least a 25% short position.

Kim Rice 6/30/10

Nasdaq: 737 Trading Day Vibration

A 737 td vibration lined up today, 6/21/10, in the Nasdaq. I guess we'll see if it marks a turn. The stock indices shown in the previous post (Trendline Resistance on Stocks) gapped over the trendlines but failed to hold the gains and closed under the lines. The trading strategy: hold short with stops just above highs set on 6/21/10.

Kim Rice 6/21/10

Trendline Resistance on Stocks

Here are a few charts that show various indices have rallied right to what I view as important resistance. It looks like make or break time. A reasonably low-risk strategy is to reload shorts here at resistance with stops a few points above the lines on a closing basis.

A previous post mentions 6/24/10 as important timing. After reviewing data again, and since the other CIT dates posted for June have all shifted to plus 1-2 days, I think it's more likely that the 25th or 28th will be the CIT day.

Kim Rice 6/16/10

Dollar: Will the Trendline Hold?

For some reason the charts originally included with this post wouldn't open with usual double click. I uploaded them again, so let's see if they will open this time.

Well, the dollar is has entered the trendline resistance area I showed in my earlier analysis posted 12/6/09 as the dollar was bottoming: http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2009/12/dollar-analysis.html

If the dollar manages a weekly close or two above the trendline, I think it will likely indicate the dollar will ultimately go much higher, short-term down drafts not withstanding.

As shown on the updated chart, there is a 285 week vibration that is due the week of 6/7/10. We should find out soon if it shows up again. Not shown on the chart are some other shorter-term time squares lining up for this same week. Also not show is another significant timing confluence due around Aug 6-10, 2010.

The second chart is a close-up of recent activity that looks like a five wave pattern may be ending and we are completing a final 5th wave thrust out of the triangle that formed over the last few weeks. Also the 14 period RSI has significant divergence with price. Additional comments are included on the longer-term chart.

Kim Rice 6/6/10

Stock Indices: Potential CIT Dates for June & Astro Volatility

The link below is to a 5/26/10 interview of Larry Pesavento where he says the next few weeks are similar to the Oct 2008 meltdown period as far as planetary alignments go. I don't know if he will be right but, if we're kicking off wave 3 down, a meltdown could happen any time. Crashes come when markets are in an oversold condition, however most of the time the market will rally from oversold conditions like we have now.

CIT dates for June in my work are (with scale of 1 to 10 for significance):

6/2 (1-10 scale=2)

6/7 (4)

6/14 (7)

6/24 (7)

As usual, there is no way to know for sure what will happen in the markets. I will just trade around my CIT dates and add, lighten, stand pat or reverse positions based on what the sentiment, technicals, E-waves and other patterns or fractals look like as the dates arrive.

For the Larry P interview, click on the following link to Frisby's Bulls and Bears: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

Or paste the following URL into your browser for a direct link to the audio file: http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/mf/web/cp3h5k/LarryJune2nd.mp3

Kim Rice 5/29/10

S&P - Potential Time Confluence 5/25/10

Tuesday 5/25/10 is a confluence of the following trading days measuring from prior swing points in SPX:

8, 13, 21, 62, 89, 161, 233, 377, 617(618-1)

and

130 = 10x13

339 = (34x10)-1

552 = (55x10)+2

5/25/10 area +/- a trading day or two is a time to be alert for possible reversal in market, albeit probably a fairly short term reversal.

Kim Rice 5/19/10

Nasdaq: 638 Trading Day Vibration

Attached are two charts of the Nasdaq showing that we have entered the time window for a potential CIT of significance. The first chart shows iterations of the 638 trading day vibration going back to the 2000 top.

The second chart is a bit shorter view showing just the last two iterations of the cycle. There are additional comments on the long-term chart regarding an Fibonacci time series that ended on 5/12/10.

Kim Rice 5/13/10