Upcoming Potential CIT Dates for Stocks, Gold, Dollar, and Natural Gas

Stock indices and gold/silver have fairly significant timing confluence for potential change in trend on the following dates:

• 12/17/10 - probable top, at least short term
• 1/6/11 - should be a low
• 1/25/11 area - I'm guessing an important top (may be higher or lower top)

US Dollar has a 320 wk cycle low due around 1/25/11 (probably higher low than Nov 2010)

Natural gas should have trend change on or near 1/13/11, I'm thinking it will be a low of significance.

As usual, when analyzing potential CIT dates, polarity is very difficult to determine in advance. The main idea is to see if a market trends into a CIT date and presents a set-up for trading a reversal.

Kim Rice 12/16/10

Stocks: 354 Trading Day Symmetry

The month of November saw the stock market push higher and basically ignore price and time projections/confluence points. After a brief pullback in November we are again challenging or exceeding the recent highs. I still think it is part of a topping process that seems to be getting the bullish sentiment gauges pushed to extremes. There are outstanding projections in SPX to 1250 area, so that may have to be seen before the market has a meaningful reversal - don't know.

Posted today is a chart showing some symmetry with a 354 trading day time span that has marked a number or reversals from different swing points for several years now.

Dec 2010 is also a Fibonacci 21 months from the Mar 2009 low, whereas the Apr 2010 top was 13 months from the Mar 2009 low.

There are numerous divergences setting up on indicators and among different indexes as the SPX is pushing to new highs on this latest stampede to the upside. Sometimes these time symmetries will mark turns when sentiment is one-sided and the indicators are diverging. Let's see if the QE2 will override everything and keep the markets going or if the markets will stall and possibly turn down for more than 2 days. Other upcoming CIT dates to watch are 12/13/10, 12/31/10 and 1/10/11 (all plus or minus a trading day or two).

Kim Rice 12-5-10

QQQQ Trendline and 93 TD Vibration on NDX

My previous post includes a chart showing potential price resistance in the Nasdaq around the 2517 area http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/10/nasdaq-reaches-price-projection.html .

Posted today are a few charts showing more analysis that's leading me to think the stock market may be making a top. If the 93 trading day vibration continues to mark turns, we shouldn't be surprised to see a spike up and reversal down on Monday 11/1/10. Looking to add to shorts with stop remaining at 2540 for now.

Kim Rice 10/31/10

Nasdaq Reaches Price Projection Confluence

Three different projections from multiple swing points all converge for a potentially important confluence in the 2516 area (+/- a point or two). Since that is the area of the high today, I wouldn't expect prices to move significantly higher from here if this confluence is important. Shorts could be entered with stops at 2540, which is 5 points above the April 2010 high. Time cycles are also lining up around the 28th/29th for possible reversal. Note that 11/17/10 looks to be very important in currencies and stocks and, at this point, I have no idea on polarity.

Kim Rice 10/28/10

Cotton: 2249 Trading Day Vibration

I see cotton has more or less been trending with the stock market since the Nov 2008 lows. The chart shows a 2249 td vibration that may or may not mark a reversal in cotton. Though the CIT date is due at end of Oct 2010, due to the length of the cycle I would give it some room, probably to around mid November. If it hasn't marked a significant reversal by then, I would say this cycle is being overwhelmed by the sea of fiat money the world is creating to keep the system afloat. We'll see soon enough.

Kim Rice 10-24-10

Gold: Is the Recent 1388 Peak Important?

I posted some analysis recently on gold, showing several potential near and long-term targets based on linear and log scale charts: http://markettime-patterns.blogspot.com/2010/10/gold-potential-projections.html

Now that gold has recently peaked in the 1388 area, I thought I would do some analysis on that price point. Here's what I found:

• Range of Feb 2010 L to Jun 2010 H = Range of Jul 2010 L to Oct 2010 H @ 1388.
• Range of Feb 2010 L to Oct 2010 H @ 1388 is .618 x the range of the Oct 2008 L to Dec 2009 H.
• Range of Jan 1970 L ($35.00) to Jan 1980 H expanded by 61.8% = 1389 as shown in the chart.

I still think 1450 area may be important per my earlier analysis; however, this 1389 area looks just as important for different reasons.

Kim Rice 10/24/10

Possible Targets for Apple

I took a look at the long and short-term chart of AAPL, since, due to its weighting, it almost single-handedly is running the NDX up. I found multiple projections pointing to 328.50 to 331 range. There was one projection in log scale that pointed to 315, essentially the high of 10/15/10. So if AAPL hasn't peaked yet and needs to climax after earnings come out AH 10/18/10, it should run into resistance near 330. If it moves above 335, the next projection I see is a possible run to 360.

Kim Rice 10/17/10