US Dollar - 72/73 Week Cycle

Let's see if the dollar can bounce or not. If this cycle is going to do anything, the dollar needs to start bottoming and begin an advance fairly soon.

Kim Rice 4/11/11

Precious Metals

The posted gold chart shows a time square projected from a couple of important swing points. Gold and especially silver are getting overdone with sentiment getting extreme on the bullish side in some readings. I also have some time projections pointing to 4/27/11 and 5/12/11. So I don't know if this 4/11 time square is significant, but the metals are due for meaningful retracement. Whether it's done with the advance yet or not, my analysis suggests important cycle lows are due sometime between mid June and early July 2011. Don't know if it will happen, but would like to see lows in silver somewhere between 20 and 28 in that timeframe.

Kim Rice 4/11/11

NYSE 100 Index Resistance

On the NYSE 100 index we can see that the April 2010 top was right at the 50% retracement of the 2007 to 2009 drop. We are rapidly approaching the 61.8 % retracement level in the 6,000 area. The second chart is a closeup showing trend and channel lines intersecting around the 6,000 area as well.

Running into this .618 ret level just as we run into an important web of Fib Timing Confluence increases the odds of a significant market reversal in the very near future. I will be looking to add to short positions in other indices based on a move to 6,000 on the NYSE 100 (or on any reversal signal in the next 5 trading days if we don't get there).

Kim Rice 2/17/11

S&P Fib Timing Confluence

As shown on the attached weekly SP chart, there is an impressive web of Fib timing lining up for the week of 2/21/11. I would give this a variance of no more than about 1 week either way. Assuming this timing will have an effect on the Fat Finger Ben market, it should have some kind of top somewhere between today and March 4th. I'm leaning toward 2/18 to 2/23 based on some daily timing work not included on the chart.

Kim Rice 2/16/11

DJIA Fib Price Projections

AT 12,550 area (+/- 50 points), the wave from the July 2010 low = .618 of the length of the 3/9/09 to 4/26/10 wave. The .236 and .382 proportions of that wave have marked swing tops since July 2010 low. If the DJIA gets there (which seems likely), the .618 area (around 12,500 to 12,600) should be resistance and perhaps mark a significant swing top.

The 12,520 area is also a .786 retracement of the decline from Oct 2007 to Mar 2009.

Kim Rice 2/13/11

S&P Weekly with Andrew's Pitchfork

The SP is up against the upper boundary of the pitchfork. I guess we'll find out fairly soon if Ben Bernanke's fat finger can push the market through this resistance point like it has on all prior resistance points.

Kim Rice 2/9/11

NQ Resistance

Posted is a long-term chart and short-term closeup of potential resistance at the 2360 area achieved today at the highs of the session. Whether or not it tops here, 2360 does mark a place for a relatively low risk short entry. I think shorts in the 2355 to 2360 area with stop at 2370 is a reasonable risk/reward setup. Reasonable downside target is .382 ret. of rally since July 2010 low, which comes in around 2100.

Kim Rice 2/7/11