The potential fractal pointed out on the chart jumps out as me as too similar to dismiss. I think it's valid as long as the SPX doesn't trade above 1250. Actually, it would fit better if SPX stays below 1206 area, but I think we may have to give it some room. Time-wise, the market could chop around in a topping process for weeks if it wants to; or it could start heading down soon. If we charge above 1250 area, I'll probably have to shelve this particular fractal idea.
I think the pull of the 4 yr cycle low (due in 4th quarter 2010) will kick in fairly soon. However, if this is 87 redux, we may have a few sharp pullbacks but no final peak until early August when the big alignment in the sky takes place. In 1987 the market frenzy peaked on the day of the Harmonic Convergence (8/25/87) and then lost 38.2% in about 8 weeks. As always, we'll have to wait to find out.
Kim Rice 4/11/10
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