I don't know what kind of odds to lay on this working out, but I have a confluence of price projections pointing to the 470 to 475 area as a potential top in AAPL. Not sure about THE top, but I think a reasonable chance of an intermediate top. Strategy would be to step in front of the freight train at 470 to sell short or buy puts and stop out if AAPL closes above 482.
Kim Rice 1/30/12
Monday, January 30, 2012
Sunday, January 29, 2012
Yen: Major Turn Point Due Feb 13/14, 2012
If the yen rallies into the the 13th/14th of Feb (plus/minus 1 trading day), I think it may be ending its long-term uptrend from the 1982 low of 35.96 basis nearby futures. Sometimes the Japanese government intervenes in the currency markets on Sunday nights when volume is light to get the most bang for their operations. Must be alert on the evening of the 12th since it's right at the edge of the CIT window. Once/if the lower trendline of the rising wedge breaks (and likely gets back-tested) on the daily/weekly chart, it may kick off a 5-year decline into the week of 2/17/2017. Polarity is guess for 2017, but that is my next major turn point for the yen. Can't rule out a multi-week topping process for Feb/Mar 2012, but there shouldn't be any significant upside after 2/14.
If, on the other hand, the yen sells off significantly from here and trends down into this Feb 2012 time window, it could mark another low with the uptrend to continue thereafter. I would give this scenario a very low probability, but anything is possible.
My market timing work projects vibrations in time where a change in trend is probable. Polarity is always a guess until we arrive at the projected timing. I'll post a follow-up as we arrive.
There is no certitude in forecasting a turning point in a market, just as there is no certitude that a signal from a trend following system or other indicators will be profitable. Like everything else, it is a probabilities game which requires risk management and trades that accrue net gains over time.
Kim Rice 1/29/12
If, on the other hand, the yen sells off significantly from here and trends down into this Feb 2012 time window, it could mark another low with the uptrend to continue thereafter. I would give this scenario a very low probability, but anything is possible.
My market timing work projects vibrations in time where a change in trend is probable. Polarity is always a guess until we arrive at the projected timing. I'll post a follow-up as we arrive.
There is no certitude in forecasting a turning point in a market, just as there is no certitude that a signal from a trend following system or other indicators will be profitable. Like everything else, it is a probabilities game which requires risk management and trades that accrue net gains over time.
Kim Rice 1/29/12
Sunday, January 22, 2012
1/27/12 May Be Key Turn Date in Markets
In my proprietary timing analysis, 1/27/12 (+/- 1 trading day) appears to be an important window to be alert for a change in trend in stock indices, gold, silver, and the dollar.
Polarity is always a guess until you get to the date. My guess is stocks and metals will make a high and the dollar will make a low around the 27th, but they could easily be the opposite or fail to work entirely.
One thing to keep in mind is that cycles and other timing methods tend not to work well during periods of heavy market manipulation by central banks. Actually, most technical and sentiment indicators fail to work well during QE phases (with the possible exception of pure trend following methods). In other words, my confidence in this or any market call is diminished when the markets are not allowed to trade freely.
Kim Rice
1/22/12
Polarity is always a guess until you get to the date. My guess is stocks and metals will make a high and the dollar will make a low around the 27th, but they could easily be the opposite or fail to work entirely.
One thing to keep in mind is that cycles and other timing methods tend not to work well during periods of heavy market manipulation by central banks. Actually, most technical and sentiment indicators fail to work well during QE phases (with the possible exception of pure trend following methods). In other words, my confidence in this or any market call is diminished when the markets are not allowed to trade freely.
Kim Rice
1/22/12
NDX Measured Moves: 2463 & 2875
Posted are two long-term charts of the NDX: the first one in normal arithmetic scale and the other in log scale.
In the normal scale chart, the current upleg will equal the range of the 2002 to 2007 upleg at 2462.82. I would look for short set-up above 2460 with stop at daily close above 2483.
If the NDX closes above 2500, the market may complete (in one or more years) a measured move in percentage terms which would target 2875 as shown on the log scale chart.
Kim Rice 1/22/12
In the normal scale chart, the current upleg will equal the range of the 2002 to 2007 upleg at 2462.82. I would look for short set-up above 2460 with stop at daily close above 2483.
If the NDX closes above 2500, the market may complete (in one or more years) a measured move in percentage terms which would target 2875 as shown on the log scale chart.
Kim Rice 1/22/12
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Bonds - Potential CIT Area 1/20/12
There is a 448 week vibration marking important turns (see blue cycle bars) in the bond market since 1986. The next iteration is due approximately 1/20/12 (plus or minus a week). This is just an area to watch for trade set-ups in case another CIT takes place in the time window. Ideal price projections to look for short set-up are 150 to 152 area, leaning toward 152 because of the trendline which may act as magnet. There are additional time and price projections annotated on the chart.
Kim Rice 12/18/11
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Gold Stock Index Timing
Posted is a chart of the XAU index that shows several iterations of a 3.5 year cycle low, the next iteration of which is due in April 2012. Presumably it will be a likely place to look for an important low, but one never knows till you get there whether it will be a low, high, or nothing at all. Not posted is timing analysis of the broad stock indexes (SPX) that indicate an important, multiple time-square confluence around the third week of April 2012. So, the mid to late April period should be watched carefully for potential swing trade setups in gold/silver stocks and broad indexes.
Kim Rice 11-17-11
Monday, October 24, 2011
Yen: Possible CIT Date 10/28 to 11/1/11
A little more analysis on the yen shows some nearer-term timing symmetry around 10/31/11, give or take a trading day or two. Amending the previous post, I plan to wait until at least 10/28 to look for short set-up. This would give it time to run wherever it wants to price-wise, including a move past the price projections at 132.17 if it wants to. There are higher projections (such as to 135 area) so I would rather let time run out before attempting shorts.
Kim Rice 10/24/11
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